By Ayomide Otitoju
Kenya’s government on Thursday presented a carefully revised national budget to parliament, aiming to avoid a repeat of the violent protests that rocked the country last year following controversial tax hikes.
The East African nation, often seen as a regional economic leader, has struggled with rising living costs, ballooning debt, and sluggish job growth. Last year’s finance bill triggered widespread outrage after it proposed higher taxes on essential goods, leading to mass demonstrations. At least 60 people were killed in clashes with security forces, with rights groups alleging arbitrary arrests in the aftermath.
This year, the government has shifted focus away from consumer tax hikes, instead targeting corporate income, ending tax holidays for some sectors, and reducing public spending in an attempt to boost revenues and close fiscal loopholes.
“This year’s finance bill is, in comparison to last year’s, very much seeking to avoid controversy,” said Patricia Rodrigues of Control Risks, a global consultancy. However, she noted that the measures would still be “difficult for a lot of businesses to swallow.”
Despite these changes, critics argue the bill contains indirect price increases that could strain small businesses. The government, meanwhile, faces the daunting challenge of servicing growing debts, with interest payments already outpacing funding for critical sectors like health and education.
The World Bank earlier this year downgraded Kenya’s 2025 economic growth forecast from 5.0% to 4.5%. Kenya is also in talks for a new deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which means IMF financing is not reflected in the current budget.
Beyond the fiscal plan, concerns over the government’s human rights record persist. Last month, a young software developer was arrested for creating a website opposing the new finance bill. This week, public attention turned to the death of a man in police custody after he allegedly criticised a senior officer.
Rodrigues warned that public discontent remains high despite the more measured tone of this year’s budget. “Just because the tax issue is no longer at the forefront of people’s minds does not mean that protests or unrest will not be mobilised,” she said.
