By Ayomide Otitoju
Campaigning for Nigeria’s 2027 general elections officially began on Wednesday, five months before the polls, with the economy, cost of living and insecurity expected to dominate political debates.
Africa’s most populous country continues to face economic challenges and persistent violence from armed groups, while President Bola Tinubu’s divided opposition could strengthen his bid for a second term.
“The economy is the biggest issue. That’s the one thing that cuts across different parts of the country, and it continues to affect security and development concerns,” said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of The Bellwether, a Nigeria politics newsletter.
Tinubu, who was elected in 2023, has pursued major economic reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, which had helped keep prices lower for years.
Although economists and investors have largely welcomed the reforms, they have contributed to a severe cost-of-living crisis, with the naira losing significant value and inflation rising to 34 per cent. Headline inflation, however, fell to 15.4 per cent in July.
Poverty has also remained a major concern. According to the World Bank, more than 60 per cent of Nigerians now live below the poverty line, compared with 40 per cent in 2019.
Security is another key issue ahead of the election. Ladd Serwat, a senior Africa analyst at conflict monitor ACLED, said violence had increased since 2024, driven by the spread of armed banditry across northern and central Nigeria and intensifying conflict in Borno State, the centre of the country’s jihadist insurgency.
Meanwhile, Adekaiyaoja said the opposition had struggled to present a clear alternative to Tinubu’s policies because of internal divisions and legal challenges.
“For me, the most important issues are the economy and cost of living,” said civil servant Afolayan Abdullahi, 42, who said he planned to vote for Tinubu.
Tinubu, regarded as one of Nigeria’s most experienced politicians, leads the All Progressives Congress, which controls the National Assembly and 31 of the country’s 36 governorships.
The January 16 presidential election is expected to feature a rematch of the 2023 contest, with Tinubu again facing former Anambra State governor Peter Obi, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and other candidates.
Tinubu won the 2023 election with 36.6 per cent of the vote, while Abubakar secured 29 per cent and Obi received 25 per cent.
Former Kano State governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, who won about six per cent in 2023, has now aligned with Obi as his running mate.
Concerns over insecurity and the rising cost of transportation could also affect voter turnout.
“Nigeria is not safe — terrorists, kidnappers, bandits everywhere,” said Becky Alegbe, a 28-year-old street vendor in Abuja.
Alegbe, who is registered to vote in her home village in Edo State, said she was unwilling to travel for the election because of security concerns and transportation costs, which she said had increased fivefold. She also expressed concerns about vote buying.
The start of campaigning follows the signing of the National Peace Accord by several presidential candidates on Tuesday, including Tinubu, Obi, African Action Congress candidate Omoyele Sowore and Peoples Redemption Party candidate Donald Duke.
The signing ceremony, held at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja, was attended by representatives of presidential, governorship and National Assembly candidates, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman, Joash Amupitan, Secretary to the Government of the Federation George Akume, political party leaders and other senior political figures.
The accord was organised by the National Peace Committee (NPC) as part of efforts to promote peaceful political engagement ahead of the 2027 elections. A second phase is expected after the polls.
Speaking before the signing, Obi called for a credible election and urged Nigerians to ensure that their votes count.
“I don’t have any fear [going into next year’s election] except to say that, please, for the sake of the children of Nigeria, can we have an election where people’s votes will count?” he said.
Obi also urged voters not to support candidates or parties that violate the peace agreement.
President Tinubu, who was represented at the event by Akume, commended the National Peace Committee and its leaders, including former Head of State Abdulsalami Abubakar, Sultan of Sokoto Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar and Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah, for sustaining the initiative since 2014.
Tinubu said improvements in election technology, including the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), had helped reduce electoral fraud and strengthened the role of voters.
He cited recent off-cycle elections in Anambra, Osun and Ekiti as evidence of improving transparency in Nigeria’s electoral process, saying different parties had won those elections and observers had described them as free, credible and transparent.
“When the process and outcome are manifestly transparent, we see less post-election litigation in our courts,” Tinubu said, adding that politicians were becoming more accountable because “votes count.”
