Chinese automaker BYD is set to overtake Tesla as the world’s largest electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer in annual sales, according to industry analysts, as both companies prepare to release their final 2025 figures.
As of the end of November, Shenzhen-based BYD, which also produces hybrid vehicles, had sold 2.07 million EVs this year. In comparison, Tesla’s sales, boosted temporarily by a surge ahead of the expiration of a US EV tax credit in September, are expected to total about 1.65 million for 2025—a decline of 7.7 percent from the previous year and well below BYD’s tally.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank project Tesla will sell around 405,000 EVs in the fourth quarter, with declines of roughly one-third in North America and Europe and about 10 percent in China. Market observers say US EV demand is still adjusting after the $7,500 federal tax credit for EV buyers ended in September 2025.
Tesla has also faced rising competition from BYD and other Chinese manufacturers, as well as European EV makers, and has been affected by political controversies involving CEO Elon Musk. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities noted that fourth-quarter sales of around 420,000 vehicles would signal stable demand while Wall Street remains focused on Tesla’s autonomous driving initiatives set to begin in 2026.
BYD, meanwhile, has sought to expand its global footprint amid domestic pricing pressures. Fitch Ratings’ Jing Yang described BYD as a pioneer in establishing overseas production and supply chains, noting that the company’s geographic diversification will help it navigate complex global tariffs. While Chinese EV subsidies have faced scrutiny abroad, BYD is building manufacturing capacity in Hungary to circumvent tariffs imposed in the US and Europe.
Despite Tesla likely losing the top spot in EV sales, analysts see potential growth from its autonomous technology. Breakthroughs in full self-driving features and the planned April 2026 launch of the Cybercab autonomous robotaxi could boost future demand. Additionally, Tesla’s introduction of lower-priced versions of the Model 3 and Model Y may further strengthen sales.
With BYD’s rapid rise and Tesla’s pivot toward autonomous vehicles, the global EV market appears set for intensified competition in the coming years.
