By Ayomide Otitoju
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its 2025 global merchandise trade forecast upward, citing a surge in exports linked to artificial intelligence (AI) goods and accelerated shipments to the United States ahead of impending tariff hikes by President Donald Trump’s administration.
In its updated global trade outlook released on Tuesday, the WTO projected trade volume growth of 2.4 percent in 2025, up from 0.9 percent in its August forecast. However, it cut its 2026 forecast to 0.5 percent from 1.8 percent, warning that the full impact of U.S. tariffs would weigh heavily on global trade next year.
“Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among emerging economies,” the report stated.
Since returning to office in January, President Trump has implemented several waves of new import tariffs, including a 10 percent baseline tariff on all countries introduced in April, with significantly higher rates imposed on select economies.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that while global trade has shown resilience this year, it remains vulnerable to protectionist policies and geopolitical uncertainty.
“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes, the growth potential of AI, and increased trade among emerging economies helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,” Okonjo-Iweala noted. She cautioned, however, that “today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and build a stronger, more inclusive foundation for prosperity.”
The WTO maintained its forecast for global GDP growth at 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2.6 percent in 2026, reflecting continued economic fragility amid trade policy shifts and technological transitions.
