By Ayomide Otitoju
Africa hosts an estimated US$29.5 trillion in mine-site mineral value, accounting for roughly 20% of global mineral wealth, yet captures only a fraction of the economic potential embedded in these resources, according to a new study released by Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) on Monday.
Of this total, US$8.6 trillion remains undeveloped, highlighting the continent’s under-explored status, where fragmented geological data, uneven coverage, and limited transparency elevate risk perception and constrain investment. The study stresses that improving the availability and quality of geological data is a critical first step to de-risk projects and attract exploration capital.
The report also notes that mine-site values significantly understate Africa’s true potential. When minerals are processed into steel, aluminium, fertilisers, batteries, and alloys, their value rises by an order of magnitude, revealing substantial latent economic opportunity.
Launched at Mining Indaba in Cape Town, the Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals reframes the sector through an African development lens, focusing on industrialisation, infrastructure, and long-term regional demand.
“Today, AFC is proud to launch the Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals—an initiative to reframe the sector through an African lens and convert endowment into execution pathways for our collective prosperity,” said Samaila Zubairu, President and CEO of AFC. “The Compendium links reserves and production to processing capacity, power and transport infrastructure, and regional industrial corridors, improving data transparency to de-risk exploration, lower the cost of capital, and guide smarter investment into mining and enabling infrastructure for beneficiation and integrated regional value chains.”
The study finds that mineral production, enabling infrastructure, and demand rarely align at scale, calling for stronger regional planning anchored in Africa’s long-term needs. The steel value chain illustrates this misalignment: while Africa holds world-class ferro-alloy deposits—including manganese, chromium, nickel, and iron ore—supply chains remain largely tied to Asian steel cycles rather than local development trajectories.
This misalignment has economic consequences. Slowdowns in Asian steel demand, driven by China’s property slump and weaker construction, have transmitted shocks to African mineral markets. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cobalt production quotas were imposed to manage oversupply. In South Africa, primary steelmaking has paused due to weak domestic demand, high costs, and fragmented offtake. In Gabon, major manganese operations have periodically suspended production in response to softer alloy demand from Asia.
These challenges persist despite Africa expanding transport networks, power systems, housing, and industrial capacity—underscoring that the constraint is not a lack of demand, but the failure to anchor production, processing, and infrastructure around Africa’s own material needs.
The Compendium emphasises infrastructure as a central component of Africa’s mineral strategy. Power reliability, transport connectivity, and access to industrial land determine whether beneficiation and regional value chains are viable. The report maps mineral deposits alongside railways, ports, power generation hubs, and transmission networks to identify areas where coordinated infrastructure can unlock scale, lower costs, and support regional industrial platforms.
Infrastructure is also critical for Africa’s competitiveness amid green industrialisation. Clean power, efficient logistics, and integrated corridors—such as the Lobito Corridor—can reduce carbon intensity and improve access to markets increasingly demanding low-carbon and traceable supply chains.
The Compendium situates Africa’s mineral strategy within a shifting global landscape characterised by trade tensions, export controls, industrial policies, and efforts to reduce concentration risk. The report argues that Africa can move beyond being a marginal raw material supplier by selectively integrating into strategically critical segments of global supply chains—particularly for minerals with concentrated processing markets such as manganese, rare earths, graphite, uranium, and key alloying inputs for defence, aerospace, and clean-energy technologies.
By aligning mineral production with infrastructure, processing, and regional demand, the AFC study suggests Africa could unlock significant economic value, enhance resilience, and assert a stronger role in global mineral supply chains.
