Nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki has won Poland’s presidential runoff election, defeating pro-European Union candidate Rafal Trzaskowski in a closely contested race that signals a political setback for the country’s centrist government.
Official results released Monday by the National Election Commission showed Nawrocki securing 50.89% of the vote, while Trzaskowski, the pro-EU mayor of Warsaw, garnered 49.11%. Voter turnout was high at 71.63%.
The 42-year-old Nawrocki, a known admirer of former U.S. President Donald Trump, celebrated victory at a rally in Warsaw, declaring, “We will win and we will save Poland.” His triumph is expected to stall progressive reforms on issues such as abortion rights and LGBTQ protections, while potentially straining relations with Brussels and Kyiv.
Outgoing President Andrzej Duda, who had endorsed Nawrocki, congratulated him on X (formerly Twitter), thanking citizens for their civic participation.
The result followed a tense election night, with both candidates initially claiming victory after exit polls showed a statistical dead heat.
Policy Implications
Nawrocki’s win grants conservatives control over the presidency, giving him veto power that could block Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda. With the government lacking a three-fifths parliamentary majority needed to override a presidential veto, legislative deadlock is likely to intensify.
During the campaign, Nawrocki expressed skepticism about Ukraine’s EU and NATO membership, pledged to cut benefits for Ukrainian refugees, and stressed national sovereignty over deeper European integration. On Friday, he placed flowers at a memorial for Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II, calling the event “a genocide against the Polish people.”
His positions drew criticism from Ukrainian officials and raised concerns over Poland’s role as a key NATO partner and supply corridor for Western arms to Ukraine.
Controversies and Endorsements
Nawrocki’s campaign was marred by controversy, including questions over a property purchase from an elderly man, allegations linked to a football hooligan past, and unsubstantiated media reports alleging involvement with sex workers—claims he strongly denied.
Despite this, he secured notable endorsements, including from Trump, who reportedly told him, “You will win,” and U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who backed Nawrocki during a conservative summit in Poland last week.
Deep Divides
The election highlighted deep societal divides in the NATO and EU member state of 38 million people. Nawrocki’s supporters, many of whom advocate for Catholic values, stricter immigration controls, and greater national sovereignty, see him as a defender of Polish tradition.
“I know he shares my values,” said 60-year-old Warsaw resident Lila Chojecka, who voted for Nawrocki.
In contrast, Trzaskowski’s base, largely urban and progressive, supports expanding civil rights and deeper ties with the EU. “Polish women still don’t enjoy the rights of our European peers,” said Malgorzata Wojciechowska, a teacher and tour guide.
Looking Ahead
Nawrocki’s victory is expected to reinvigorate the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023. Political analysts warn of a potential constitutional standoff and even early parliamentary elections if legislative gridlock deepens.
“This election was a real clash of civilizations,” said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, political scientist at the University of Warsaw.
As Nawrocki prepares to take office, Poland’s future trajectory—particularly in its relations with the EU, its stance on Ukraine, and its internal social policies—hangs in the balance.
