By Ayomide Otitoju
Key members of the OPEC+ alliance, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will meet on Saturday to deliberate on crude oil output levels, with analysts expecting a continuation of production hikes into August.
The meeting—expected to be held virtually—brings together the so-called “Voluntary Eight” (V8): Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. These countries surprised markets in April by raising production beginning in May, reversing a trend of output cuts that began in 2022 to stabilize prices.
Analysts anticipate the group will endorse an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), matching targets set for the previous three months. The move reflects a shift in focus toward regaining market share, according to Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
“The group will likely justify the decision by citing low global inventories and robust demand,” added UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. He noted that non-compliance by countries such as Kazakhstan and Iraq may be influencing the drive for increased output.
Saudi Arabia, the bloc’s de facto leader, may be using the strategy to exert pressure on underperforming members by reducing overall oil revenue through lower prices.
Jorge Leon, of Rystad Energy, estimates that the real output increase may be closer to 250,000–300,000 bpd, as actual deliveries often fall short of official quotas. A Bloomberg estimate pegged OPEC+ production gains at just 200,000 bpd in May, despite higher targets.
While the decision is unlikely to significantly impact global prices—since markets have largely priced in the expected hike—the meeting follows recent turbulence in the Middle East. A 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel temporarily pushed prices above $80 per barrel amid fears over the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows.
With tensions easing and no reported supply disruptions, Staunovo said the conflict “is unlikely to impact the alliance’s decision.” Hansen added that the episode only strengthens the case for rapid production increases, should Iranian exports be disrupted in the future.
The OPEC+ alliance, comprising OPEC’s 12 members and several non-OPEC oil-producing allies, continues to walk a tightrope between market stability and competition for market share.
